Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 3.574832 3.901313 4.280643 4.764557 5.382973 6.175520 7.325946
2024-12-22 3.093107 3.477413 3.956622 4.626611 5.597857 7.085756 9.962069
2024-12-29 2.902457 3.335483 3.905488 4.765508 6.167700 8.786516 16.696272
2025-01-05 2.669179 3.097465 3.675294 4.579626 6.147362 9.448052 24.362934
2025-01-12 2.482939 2.899238 3.469862 4.384816 6.039980 9.859181 37.453476
2025-01-19 2.357783 2.771109 3.347285 4.295849 6.096880 10.756401 151.876143
2025-01-26 2.309628 2.743274 3.364704 4.434571 6.651085 13.962626 NaN
2025-02-02 2.288496 2.750062 3.432415 4.670840 7.542907 22.096345 NaN
2025-02-09 2.225623 2.690886 3.390177 4.696887 7.939546 32.035289 NaN
2025-02-16 2.174293 2.644651 3.363317 4.746815 8.442908 64.713732 NaN
2025-02-23 2.086830 2.539524 3.232144 4.568846 8.163021 68.521869 NaN
2025-03-02 2.038614 2.490827 3.190433 4.568765 8.482788 1115.415586 NaN
2025-03-09 1.985723 2.434802 3.136436 4.544786 8.756786 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.920295 2.356903 3.040939 4.421242 8.612399 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.900038 2.346755 3.059132 4.547118 9.563738 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.836713 2.267142 2.952345 4.378634 9.134874 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.775467 2.188924 2.844890 4.201270 8.631437 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.732302 2.137454 2.781731 4.120003 8.553256 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.722839 2.137811 2.808368 4.246647 9.541817 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.724804 2.155945 2.867422 4.461403 11.366471 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.701334 2.132539 2.849898 4.485006 12.097958 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.681750 2.114553 2.841138 4.530209 13.126714 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.638646 2.057321 2.757162 4.368841 12.222567 NaN NaN